2015/11/06 TrendView VIDEO: Concise Highlights (early)
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TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK: Friday, November 6, 2015 (early)
Concise Highlights
This is indeed going to be a very concise highlight this morning, because it is important to move right into how the various asset classes are positioned prior to release of the US Employment report. Anyone desiring more fundamental background review should refer to Thursday afternoon’s follow up post on the very interesting (and dovish) Bank of England Inflation Report and press conference, or our previous Global View TrendView video analysis post and Market Observations.
Yet on the markets, much is set up to be critical in front of this morning’s US Employment report in light of last month’s abysmally week indications. That even included a downward revision to August (which will be included in the Two-Month Employment Revision this morning) in addition to the major headline Non-Farm Payrolls miss at 142,000 against an estimate of 200,000. That was the report that restored the ‘bad news is good news’ psychology after the late September selloff. As we have noted extensively previous, it was the nasty news that put paid the continued Fed assertions of the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of 2015. And so today’s number is also going to be critical for that psychology.
In the event the December S&P 500 future is up near 2,100, yet with more telling support back into 2,080-75, and resistance up into 2,120 and the 2,132 lead contract futures all-time high from back in May. And the other equities are lagging the US rally now, yet still taking their lead from the US.
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Video Timeline: It begins with macro (i.e. fundamental influences) mention of the weaker data being back almost across the board previous now turning into stronger data of late. Yet that makes the US Employment report that much more interesting and critical.
It moves on to S&P 500 FUTURE short-term view at 02:30 and intermediate term at 04:30 with only mention of OTHER EQUITIES from 06:45 and GOVVIES from 07:45 including discussion of the BUND at 09:00, and SHORT MONEY FORWARDS from 09:30. Foreign exchange is also only mentioned, with US DOLLAR INDEX at 09:45, Europe at 10:30, ASIA at 11:30 and CROSS RATES showing weakness of the British pound at 12:15 prior to returning to the S&P 500 FUTURE short term view at 12:30.
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Authorized Gold and Platinum Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion and TrendView Video Analysis and General Update. Silver and Sterling Subscribers click ‘Read more…’ (below) to access the balance of the opening discussion.
▪ The govvies are all down into interesting supports. Those include the December T-note future testing 127-00/126-24, December Gilt future rebounding from minor slippage below 117.50-.15, and the December Bund future holding into the 156.50-.20 area. All of them have further support approximately a full point lower, yet would be very negatively impacted by any strong US Employment figures.
▪ The foreign exchange is also fraught right now, with the US Dollar Index above .9775 yet still not above the key .9850 Tolerance of that resistance. That fits right in with EUR/USD down into 1.0850-00 with 1.0500 area next support below, and the GBP/USD recent weakness dropping down into the 1.0250-00 support.
▪ All the rest remains much the same as previous and as discussed in the Concise Highlights TrendView video analysis as well as the video analysis and Market Observations from Thursday morning in Wednesday morning’s Global View TrendView video post.
The TrendView VIDEO ANALYSIS & OUTLOOK is accessible below.
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